Kagan Forecasts Eventual PS3 Victory
Kagan Research is predicting that the Xbox 360 will have the lead over the PS3 in installed base at the end of 2006. (Assuming that the PS3 will launch in the 2nd half of 2006.) Kinda makes sense because the Xbox 360 will have almost a year lead in that case. Kagan thinks that in 2008 the PS3 will have pulled ahead in cumulative sales, and thinks that the 2008 sales will break down like this: PS3 – 54%, Xbox 360 – 24%, Revolution – 22%.
Other interesting estimates revealed by the report overview include suggestions that total video game console sales over all generations are expected to climb to $6.4 bil. in 2007, though projected to slip to $5.9 bil. in 2008. In addition, total video game industry revenue – hardware, software and accessories for all platforms – is forecast to peak at $16 bil. in 2007. Kagan also expects Nintendo to retain a dominant presence in the handheld market with the DS, although the company did not publically release estimates on the margin of this success.