200 million PS3’s
According to EFYTimes, BusinessWeek said that they expect the PS3 to sell 200 million copies in its first five years, with 12 million of those in the first year. That would leave an average of, oh, about 47 million in each of the four subsequent years.
This sounds just a bit, uh, crazy to me.
Maybe the estimate for the first year is okay - isn’t Microsoft shooting for 6 million in the first six months? (Correct me if I’m wrong.) So having the PS3 do the equivalent in the first year isn’t a big stretch. But an average of 47 million in each of the subsequent year sounds a little nuts. Say the console keeps selling better and better. That could mean a distribution like this:
Year 1 - 12 million
Year 2 - 20 million
Year 3 - 40 million
Year 4 - 57 million
Year 5 - 71 million
I’m just distributing the numbers somewhat haphazardly. But still, do they look like anything even close to what the reality may be? I doubt it.
Not to take the discussion to the shotbox, but come on..? Nobody likes all games, its that simple. Some like the mother, other like the daughter 
Keep your "hate-articles" coming, Gary!
January 16th, 2006 at 9:57 am
Isn’t that not similar to what researcher Envisioneering Group predicted (200m units sold in 5years)? It’s in the forum(hint hint) for anyone that needs reminding.
Like I said in the forum I doubt that very much. They probably think the addition of the Blu-Ray drive will boost sales massively. Maybe it will but 200m!! Phhht.
January 16th, 2006 at 12:05 pm
iThink the dude was just trying to have a catchy headline for his article. The PS2 sold over a hundred mil right? iWould say the PS3 will at least match that over 5 years, but iThink 200 million is a little crazy.
January 17th, 2006 at 8:28 am
What happened on Year 3? Did the factory workers go on strike?
Although high, I think this is possible.
Year 1 - 10 million
Year 2 - 20 million
Year 3 - 40 million
Year 4 - 70 million
Year 5 - 100 million
At that point, I think investment in new plants and suppliers will end, and production will level out.
I also think that with manufacturing enhancements (ie, combining chips, 65nm, etc..) the same plants will be able to produce far more consoles within 4 years.