200 million PS3’s
January 16th, 2006, 3 Comments
According to EFYTimes, BusinessWeek said that they expect the PS3 to sell 200 million copies in its first five years, with 12 million of those in the first year. That would leave an average of, oh, about 47 million in each of the four subsequent years.
This sounds just a bit, uh, crazy to me.
Maybe the estimate for the first year is okay - isn’t Microsoft shooting for 6 million in the first six months? (Correct me if I’m wrong.) So having the PS3 do the equivalent in the first year isn’t a big stretch. But an average of 47 million in each of the subsequent year sounds a little nuts. Say the console keeps selling better and better. That could mean a distribution like this:
Year 1 - 12 million
Year 2 - 20 million
Year 3 - 40 million
Year 4 - 57 million
Year 5 - 71 million
I’m just distributing the numbers somewhat haphazardly. But still, do they look like anything even close to what the reality may be? I doubt it.
The fab 3 that have created, funded, and commercialized the Cell processor have decided that the Cell is worth keeping. As such, they’ve agreed to continue their partnership for another 5 years. Makes me wonder if a derivative of the current Cell processor will be in the PS4.
I’m almost tempted to think Sony won’t make the anticipated spring 2006 PlayStation 2 launch. Reports from left, right, and skyward all say that there’s no way Sony can make it. Like this report from the Inquirer (see link below). But wait a second, if you actually read the article, it says that they don’t expect the PS3 to come out until at least May. May is spring, isn’t it? As a matter of fact, most of June is in spring as well. Hmmm.



