Archive for January, 2006
According to EFYTimes, BusinessWeek said that they expect the PS3 to sell 200 million copies in its first five years, with 12 million of those in the first year. That would leave an average of, oh, about 47 million in each of the four subsequent years.
This sounds just a bit, uh, crazy to me.
Maybe the estimate for the first year is okay – isn’t Microsoft shooting for 6 million in the first six months? (Correct me if I’m wrong.) So having the PS3 do the equivalent in the first year isn’t a big stretch. But an average of 47 million in each of the subsequent year sounds a little nuts. Say the console keeps selling better and better. That could mean a distribution like this:
Year 1 – 12 million
Year 2 – 20 million
Year 3 – 40 million
Year 4 – 57 million
Year 5 – 71 million
I’m just distributing the numbers somewhat haphazardly. But still, do they look like anything even close to what the reality may be? I doubt it.
When I see article titles like “Sony has no strategy for an online service – Ballmer” I just have to respond. Everyone is always on Sony’s back for making claims that end up being no more than vapour. (Personally, I think that Sony has been rather restrained this time around compared to the PS2 launch.) But what about Microsoft’s posturings?
In this article, Ballmer says “Sony has no strategy for an online service.” That statement is so ludicrous, I can hardly keep a straight face typing this. Maybe Sony doesn’t have plans for a centralized online service, but they certainly do have online service plans, and Ballmer knows it.
But that’s not all!
Then Ballmer claims that the Xbox 360 launch was “phenomenal”. This is the launch where people couldn’t sell their souls to get an Xbox 360. It is perpetual short supply. It actually sold less in the opening week in Japan than the original Xbox did! And didn’t Microsoft recently have to downgrade expectations for sales in the first three months?
Okay, okay. I guess all this can be considered part of the gamesmanship that happens when two large companies battle it out. But why does everyone give Sony flak for this when Microsoft does the same?
PS Before you say it, I’ll do it for you. At least one person will reply to this post saying “I totally dug your site up until this post, which was stupid”. I always get comments like that when I post anti-Microsoft stuff. Guess what? I don’t care!
In case you haven’t heard, some Sony artist dude made some disparaging remarks about the PS3 and got canned. (See link below for details.) I think people are making a little too much of this, for several reasons.
First of all, this guy wasn’t working on an actual game. He was working on a cinematic demo. Completely not the same thing.
Also, there are statements like this:
I have been pretty excited about the whole cell processing thing. I am not a very technical person but my understanding of it was pretty clear.
A nontechnical person has a clear understanding of the Cell processor. Okay…
He then goes on to spout a bunch of rumours and inuendos, and well, I just discounted this all as nonsense. He complains about fluid dynamics and object dynamics, etc. What if the game he was working “near” just didn’t use those things? Or the develops didn’t. And did he really expect to see subsurface scattering done in real time?
But what do you think? Is there more to it?
Do I need glasses?
Anyway, rumours are flirting around that a couple DOA games may make their way to the PS3, in case you’re interested.
[Edit: this rumour is SQUASHED! It seems that it was just a typo...]
SCE Europe’s years development conference, DevStation, is to be held March 1st and 2nd in London’s Brick Lane. Man, what I wouldn’t give to be a fly on the wall at that place!
The conference, which will take place in London’s Brick Lane from March 1st to March 2nd, has posted an extensive agenda online, which includes significant discussion on the Cell chip, graphics, art, performance, audio, networking, and a new tool named PSSG, which is described as “a PS3 optimised cross-platform graphics engine and tool-chain.”
Some of the things to be discussed will be:
- Operating System and Libraries
- SPU case studies in procedural geometry
- RSX Low Level API / RSX Performance Info
- Blu-ray – Mastering, Reading, Streaming
- OSD, Cross media bar, Game Saves, Controllers, Peripherals, Bluetooth, USB, Hard Drive
- Havok – Havok Complete 3.3 – SPU Utilisation
- Ageia – PhysX
- PSSG Intro
I’m encouraged to see that the HDD is in there, though of course this is no indication of whether or not it will be included by default.
Even more encouraging is that Sony will be discussing the PlayStation 3 in such an open forum. (Well, relatively open.) My guess is that by the time this conference happens, everyone will know a lot more about the PS3, so that this conference isn’t a surprise.