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More Console Sales Forecasts |

Here we go again. This time around it’s the International Development Group with their forecast about the next-gen console war. It’s easier to just show the chart, so here it is:

They predict that four years from now the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will be neck and neck, with each at about 24 million units sold (with the 360 being slightly ahead). The Wii will have about 14 million sold. Not to shortchange Nintendo or anything, but I find the Wii numbers hard to believe. Uh… what am I saying? These are projections, man! Ah well. They’re fun to look at, at any rate.

New Hardware Projections Arrive

  • Martin Hansen

    So they think the total will be 62 millions in 4 years? While the current generation of consoles had a total of 100 + 20 + 20 = 140 mill (estimate) in 5 or so years? Yeah right!

  • Hey – I never noticed that. Good one!

  • I dont think the Wii will be the mass market success most think it will be. Japan will LOVE it, but as for the rest of the world, especially the US, the significant current gen look to games is not going to convince many casual gamers. Dont believe me, just listen to a conversation in the average gamer shop, graphics mean alot. Once the novelty of the controller wears off, the games are really going to have to deliver to convince people that its any more fun than the traditional control scheme. In fact in some games, the controlls are every bit as complicated as its tradition counterpart, which defeats the purpose of the paradigm shift in the first place.

    Enough with the Wii rant, I think this is probably pretty accurate for north america. However, I think sony after that long may have passed the 360, The future game linup, has more heavy hitters in my opinion, than the 3 or so games people are waiting for from the 360. They both will be close, but I think 1st and 2nd will be reversed.

  • Whats interesting , besides Martins post, is, that the 360 and Wii curves get saturated at the end, and the PS3 curve does NOT.

    This, if at least a bit accurately, shows the PS3 will win the consolewar in the end (after 4+ years, when the 360 has 5yrs on its back).

    But what I think it is, that MS will (again) after 4 years release its successor of the 360. They are on a HARD course in the market, and that will disturb Sonys and Nintendos “strategy”.

    But thats just guessing…

  • I think it will be very troubling for both gamers and the industry if microsoft does for the “next” next-gen transition as they did with this gen transition. If they cut the generation short by launching another system and dropping support, this will severly impair what this gen is capable of. Sony would like for generations to last a little longer given the heavy hitters still due out for the PS2. Nintendo has all be concede the faltering of their last gen effort, so they are just as ready for the next gen to come as microsoft. I just think artificially shortening the gen like microsoft did, might cause such a saturation that Segitz commented on. It discourages people from buying the current system in arguably its greatest years, simply because the company in charge wants to move on. Both nintendo and microsoft have been prone to doing this. But if current PS2 sales are any indication, im sure the ps3 will continue to sell, amidst the announcement of the next xbox and nintendo product.

  • steven

    too bad wii is selling more than both huh?