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Henning’s PS3 Soapbox – E3 Predictions |

e3.jpgNext week, starting July 10th, is going to be a very interesting time for those of us who own Blu-ray enabled consoles. (Yes, I’m talking about PS3 owners here.) E3 is coming, and Sony is promising us an interesting show. What does next week have in store? Here’s my thoughts on the rumour mongering.

SIXAXIS Rumbler – 70%

I know that there’s been a lot talk about the new SIXAXIS and possible rumble functionality. Hey, I talked about it yesterday. But the fact remains that we’ve heard nothing at all from Sony beyond vague comments about incorporating rumble somehow into their product lineup. As well, Sony and Immersion kissed and made up only a few short months ago. Can Sony really have something to show already? I’m guessing that if Sony has anything to say on the matter, that they’ll have a pre-announcement. That is, they’re going to say they’re working on it, but won’t give a date for its release. I, for one, miss rumble more than I thought I would. When I heard rumble was gone, I didn’t care. But now that I’m playing the games, I find that I really miss it. I hope it comes back!

Price Cut – 70%

Sony have come out and said that they have no plans for a price cut. (See my comments on Darrin’s post.) But the evidence seems overwhelming that a price cut is coming. Best Buy Canada had that flyer. Circuit City had theirs. The news is swirling around town that a price cut is in the offing. To tell the truth, I wouldn’t have believed the rumours if it weren’t for the flyers. It hasn’t even been a year yet and I would have guessed that Sony would only cut prices for the Christmas rush. So I’m of two minds about this, but with all the “evidence” swirling about, I’ll give this rumour a better than 50-50 chance.

Killzone 2 Showing – 100%

Should I even bother with this one? Yes, and I’ll tell you why in a sec. But first, the facts. Sony is having a press event just to cover Killzone 2 on the PS3. So we know it’ll make a strong showing at E3. There are really only two questions left, which is why I’m even mentioning this in the first place.

One – will we have a playable demo at E3? I don’t think so. The game is too far away for a demo, and unless the demo is really top-notch, today’s press will just eat it alive. The press is prowling for reasons to dump on Sony, and a less-than-spectacular demo would be just the ammo they need. Sony doesn’t want to risk it.

Two – how good will it look? I’ll tell you: it’s going to be MotorStorm all over again. Remember the target trailer for MotorStorm? It looked awesome. The game? It was awesome too – but a realistic, this is a PS3 game not a movie, kind of awesome. The same thing will happen with Killzone 2. It’ll look really good. But it won’t be the target render. And if that’s what you’re expecting, you’ll be disappointed.

MGS4 Exclusive – 5%

We all wonder, of course, if the PS3 is going to lose one of its most cherished 3rd-party exclusives. And I’m going to go out on a very thick limb and say that it will indeed. Microsoft is throwing cash around like it’s going out of style. And you gotta know they’ll be buying MGS4 on the 360. Ah well. Not much we can do.


Of course, Sony will also be showing games like Lair, Heavenly Sword, and other upcoming standouts. They’ll probably mention Home and how well it’s doing. My guess is that LittleBigPlanet will not make an appearance. Ratchet and Clank will be there, however, in abundance!

Well, that’s it for this edition of the soapbox. I haven’t covered all the topics, of course, so feel free to add your comments. E3 is coming, and it’ll be fun.

Other Soapbox Rants

  • Sporty

    I agree with just about every one of your points. Except I think a price cut is slightly higher then 70%.

    MGS4. I think your right about it going Multi, but not announced this early. I think Konami will save that for X07 if true.

    I think Haze and Heavy Rain and Eight Days will get a major push from Sony. We’ll probably get several trailers on PSN. Might drop a Heavenly Sword demo on us. But I wouldn’t expect some new demos from far off games.

    Your right about Killzone 2. I don’t think that even if they made the target render insanely close people wouldn’t jump on it to trash it. Although some of the hate is fading, it’s still considered cool to hate on Sony and a lot of people are lemmings that way.

  • After listening to the recent Koji Pro Podcast, I REALLY doubt, MGS will go multiplatform.

    They said, they will show something at Sonys Press conference… What else than MGS are they going to show? Ok, they may be showing something else, but on the same day announce multiplatformism?? I dont think so!

  • Darrin

    You are 95% certain that MGS4 will be announced for 360 at E3? Clearly, that’s not out of the question, but I disagree with your odds. I’d go:

    How much exclusivity will PS3 MGS4 have:

    25%: No exclusivity period. Simultaneous multiplatform launch.
    30%: PS3 Exclusive for six months
    25%: PS3 Exclusive for one year
    20%: PS3 Exclusive for three years or more

    When would exclusivity loss be announced:

    40%: Announced at E3 2007
    60%: Announcement occurs later or it doesn’t happen.

    I would love if or something similar offered a betting service for this. Of course, that probably wouldn’t work due to insider betting.

  • I’m pretty sure LBP will be at E3. It’s only THE MOST praised PS3 exclusive within the last year!

  • Since everyone is in the mood for predictions. I’d lik to add my two cents.

    I think that Polyphony will announce GTHD Prologue. It’ll be a teaser HDGT with just 1-3 tracks to start and 10 cars. It will be free to download. If you want more tracks they can be bought, if you want more cars they can be bought either with in game winnings or with real cash. Online will be a downloadable feature.I know this is an old rumour, but I bring it back to life for one reason. Sony is in trouble. Not bad trouble but trouble none the less. GT5 is going to take a while to get done. Same with all of their other franchise games, FF, MGS, SO what better way to drive console sales than put out a version of GT. It would be a tactical move for Sony while they waited for the exclusives.

    2. More and more companies are going to start putting videos and movies on their game disks as extras. In the same way that Stranglehold will have Hard Boiled (i beleive) on the disk The Darkness had the comic books. It just makes sense from a game developers standpoint. Take a title like Naruto , Full Metal Alchemist, NFL 2008 or NHL 2008. Add a season in review TV show to the disk or as a downloadable and it adds value to the IP by making it something more than a game. This is part of building a community.

    3.PS2/PS3 waggle. I so firmly believe this rumor. It’s a great tactical move for Sony. Nintendo is eating Sony’s lunch and dinner right now especially in Japan. what a way for Sony to stem, not stop the bleeding but by having their own wii-remote. Sure they will be some negative press – mii-too, wii- too headlines and the such. but I’d rather be playing a waggle game with HD than SD Nintendo.

    4. The rise of internet services on the PSN. One form will be a personalized store front. and cross of a Yahoo page and a Facebook page. Maybe a mixture with HOME.
    PSN has easy access to podcasts and video podcasts. See Rumour 5.

    5 iTunes for the PS3. This would solve a lot of Sony’s big problems right away. First it would make the PS3 a great platform to play your music on. Second it would turn the PS3 into a media machine with access to the largest amount of digital media out there. music, movies, podcasts, audio books iphone (rumour 6) Thirdly, it would turn the PSP into an iPod. a $199 game playing iPod. Download games from the ITMS. This idea would be absolutely killer IMO.

    6 Sony wifi phone network. buy a Sony wifi handset and make phone calls to anyone, anywhere on the sony net. This ones a bit out there but it would be pretty great. Video as well with an eyetoy.

    Just a few crazy predictions.

  • Well thanks to Capcom I don’t believe a word devs/companies say anymore about their games and whether or not they’ll be multiplat or not. It’s all about the greens this time. Though I hope Kojima sticks with his word.

  • Sporty

    Personally, I think Konami wants to go multi platform with MGS4 but Kojima is resisting. Also CF5 sales in my opinion were cannibalized by the early announcement of the 360 version. I don’t think Konami is as dumb as Sega, if it does go that is.

    One more E3 thing though.

    We will most likely see massive PSN upgrades. At GDC they announced that movies, music and TV downloads will hit in the Summer along with VOD. A few months ago Sony announced that most of the connect staff were moving to PSN development. For those that don’t know Connect was basically Sony’s version of iTunes. Vongo provided content so most of the movies were a lot better quality then iTunes videos.

    VOD should be major if they can pull this off. This is new for consoles. if you read the reviews of Lives HD videos taking over 10 hours to download, VOD is a major coup.

    Also we should get the entire Sony conference and other videos on PSN.

  • While I hope that the PSN gets a major upgrade, I have to say that Sony Connect’s content sucked. I check it periodically on my PSP for stuff to download, and the content is all boring 15 seconds videos clips of crap. The only good thing there are the movie trailers, which there aren’t enough of.

  • MetalProxy

    I hear from Best Buy moles that there will be a hundred dollar price drop according to some ads that are being printed (hear in the states). Is it me or is M$ WAY to dependent on 3rd party games!!!!! Leave MG4 alone M$… Oh Well Sony will own this E3 anyways

  • Mike

    They’ve got to cut the price to get the installed base higher or it will be easier and easier for third parties like Konami to just take the money and make a 360 port. Even if it ended up being sloppy like MGS2 on Xbox was, it’s money in their pocket, and for Microsoft, another exclusive that PS3 has lost. I really hope they’re not serious about having no price drop. I’m starting to wonder how committed Sony is to the system at this point.

  • Pc

    MGS 4 WILL NOT BE MULTIPLATFORM GUYS….just because DMC did, doesn’t mean the rest will follow… sure sony was smart enough to make a deal on that title

  • I am sure MGS4 will stay exclusive, if it doesnt it will be at least several months later when it makes it to the 360 if not a year. And we all know how people stop caring when a game comes out a year later on another system (look at the past GTA games, look at the Oblivion port to the 360, or how much less the Resident Evil 4 port did on PS2). Those long timed exclusives often get played by most who want to play it, and the added audience often opts out due to it being out so long ago, or lost interest.

    My predictions are short and sweet

    Rumble 90% This is simply happening, no question about it, the question is when?

    Killzone actually coming close to the tech demo %30 (with games like gears and the newest call of duty looking amazing, its possible to get something impressive but perhaps not exactly like the cg trailer)

    PSP redesign 50% If its not now, its definitely at TGS

    Price Cut 100% Its happening, and its happening immediately

    New property coming out this year that was not previously announced %70 Sony said this would be so.

  • Imho, you cannot compare Capcom to Konami.

    Konami wasnt as much multiplatform as Capcom was, last generation. Some games were (like MGS2S) yet most were platform exclusive. I think, Konami knows, that a) MGS4 will sell many consoles, so the game wont suffer that much that way and b) they will surely later on sell a MGS4 PS3 bundle (as with MGS2 back in time) and again make good money.

    Kojima himself always did system exclusives (okay, I ignore the MSX2 games here, but I think, this is ok), I think, he prefers just working with one console to worry about and to get it to the maximum.

  • Matt

    Oblivion was released the same day on 360 and PC and it sold more copies on 360 by a large margin.

    I am really hoping for the $100 price cut and a new controller with rumble. Once those things hit the box I may pick one up. Games still take a huge importance and there still isn’t enough exclusive stuff to justify the purchase for me. Most of their exclusives are not my type of games.

    I am really hoping for a few surprises from Sony.

  • I’m sorry, that was a typo. I meant to say “look at the oblivion port to the PS3”.

  • PSN ID=LifEndz

    After Madden and VF5, I’m sort of coming to grips with the PS3 getting bad news from 3rd parties. If Konami does take their product to 360 then, like you said, there’s nothing we can do.

  • HudsonDaly

    Why are people speculating that MGS4 will go to xbox360? IT IS NOT POSSIBLE ON A DVD9! I can’t believe you ignorant people are expecting it to go multi platform. Has any of you been to any of the PS3 forums? They’ve discussed it at least 10,000 times and IT WILL NOT HAPPEN! Kojima said so himself that he has NO interest, absolute no interest in porting it over to the 360. It would require the 360 to have multi disks, and that is NOT his intentions. It’s exclusive. Please ignorant people, shut up.

  • matt

    Metal Gear Solid has already been a multiple disc game. MGS on the Playstation was multiple discs.

    Unfortunately Sony is slipping after their launch and developers are scrambling to hit numbers that they need to hit to turn a profit. MGS4 is not that big of a loss to the PS3 if it goes multiplat. I wouldn’t pick up a PS3 if it stays exclusive and not that many will either. MGS4 will move some consoles but a game like Gran Turismo will be a system seller.

    From what I have heard numerous times is that a PS3 -> 360 port is much, much easier than 360 -> PS3. If it only costs a few million to introduce a game to over 12 million + 360 owners the investment is very worth it. I really don’t see how they make a huge profit on the PS3 alone. There just aren’t enough systems.

    MGS4 costs how many millions to make, Twenty, Thirty? I hope this makes sense. This shouldn’t happen after the PS3 has 20 million + systems. Right now there are not enough PS3s to cover development costs.

    In reality this only hurts fanboys. This takes away their bragging rights as to which games their system has that the others don’t. As long as it looks, sounds, and plays awesome who cares!