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Worst Prediction Ever: MGS4 on the 360 | PS3Blog.net

Famous game journalist and Wired writer, Chris Kohler made the following statement right before E3 on 7/2/2007:

Also, Konami probably prefers making money to losing truckloads of it. All things considered, I’m pretty sure it’s already a done deal, given the fact that we hear very credible rumors about it once a week or so.

Rumors every week? Yes. Credible rumors? For all those credible rumors he’s been hearing, he sure didn’t post a single link or reference.

Also, multi-platform games don’t necessarily earn more money. Sure, they reach a large user base which has obvious revenue advantages, however there are huge buzz and marketing advantages to being platform exclusive and a substantial audience is much more receptive to buying a platform exclusive title than a similar multi-platform one.

A highly circulated anonymous insider tip surfaced at Nooz:

Earlier this week, the information of Metal gear’s non platform exclusivity was imparted to me by way of a dev source close to the team who cannot be named by pain of death. It’s coming a few months later than the PS3 game, but it’s happening folks.

This is said to be because publishers – including Konami – don’t believe there’ll be enough PS3s out there by the time the game hits because of the blu ray diode failure issues.

We honestly can’t rule out the possibility of a timed exclusive yet. However, I’ll bet that this “anonymous insider tip” was really just nonsense to begin with.

Other notable journalists and bloggers who called this one wrong:

  • Our own Henning predicted a 5% chance of MGS4 remaining PS3 exclusive at E3. (Sorry Henning)
  • 1UP Yours Podcasters were pretty sure that MGS4 was a sure thing on the 360. Shane was the only one to disagree (however, he felt the exact same way about DMC4)
  • Arstechnica’s Ben Kuchera predicted MGS4 would be announced for 360 at E3 (Frank disagreed)

Conclusion

As a PS3 fan, it really feels wonderful to see the nearly unanimous doom-sayers call this one so far off. 🙂

Celebration!

Wired’s Chris Kohler is sure of a 360 MGS4 before E3 2007

Nooz anonymous insider
Joystiq links to the Nooz insider: heightened rumor
Another site is completely convinced that the Nooz insider confirms it.

Comments

  1. Inspectre

    I think Konami is genius for being so vague. By neither confirming nor denying the 360 rumors, its kept MGS4 in the headlines for a “solid” year. If anyone didn’t know what MGS4 was last year, you’d have to be absolutely living under a rock to not know by now.

  2. I never doubted the MGS4 PS3 exclusivity. I mean this is a) Kojima and b) Konami.

    Kojima himself said, he won’t do a “dvd version” of his game (instead of Theatre), and Konami are not those multiplatform “whores” like Capcom has become. And since MGS always was a system seller, they dont have to fear that much of having slow sales (especially since this game is only due next year after the XMas craze)

  3. I think it’s possible that it might go to 360, but not until after it’s released and Konami sees how the sales are. Konami isn’t retarded like Sega.

    Announcing VF5 on 360 a month before the PS3 release only cannibalized their own sales and had fence sitters know they can wait for it on a cheaper console. However it wont have as big of an impact then since it will have more competition in the marketplace.

    One interesting thing is Kojima studios probably wont have anything to do with a 360 port if Konami does go that route. It will be another sloppy port like MGS2 on xbox was.

    One major reason it might not get ported though, Most of the PS3 doom-mongers don’t like to look at the bigger picture. PS3 is really only selling lower then 360 in North America, but they are selling about the same pace as 360 did in the same timeframe. MS can boast it is outselling PS3 2-1 at E3, then Sony announced sales have doubled since the price adjustment.

    Looking at bloomberg, PS3 is now profitable for Sony to make, 360 isn’t for MS till next year, and that was before the 1 billion repair announcement. This leaves room for Sony to react on any 360 price drop, which is probably why MS didn’t follow Sony this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another cut this year, my guess is PS3 wont be too much more then a 360 next (not this) holiday season.

    Enough of MSG speculation from me though. One thing that I noticed about this e3 is how many games Sony seems to be holding back for E4A and TGS. This leaves them room to keep momentum. GDC and E3 were both Solid shows for Sony and they still have a few more shows this year

  4. Well, you know that as soon as Kojima leaves, Konami will port it. While I see that PS3 will have the exclusive for now, I don’t believe it’ll stay that way.

  5. Sporty, thanks for that article. If anybody doesn’t want to bother to read it, here’s the relevant paragraph:

    Clearing up the trouble made PlayStation 3 profitable several months ago, giving the company room to cut prices, analyst Doherty said. Microsoft still loses money on each Xbox 360 it sells, he said.

    While I don’t disbelieve Mr. Doherty, I don’t exactly believe him instead. It is possible that the PS3 is profitable. My guess is that the 80GB one is. Sony likes to get their consoles profitable quickly. If you’re not familiar with Acts of Gord, I suggest you read this article on console pricing (way back from before “360” or “PS3” were even rumoured about).

  6. MetalProxy

    Man people wont give it up will they? Its so damn sicking. How much do you want to make a bet that they wont sell as many copys on the ThreeFixMe. Once there are do trying to get MG4 then they will harp on Final Fantasy 13 next.

  7. I knew for sure that this would never happen. Not this time around anyways 🙂

  8. Why is it so hard to believe that it will stay exclusive? Heck, DOA went xbox exclusive even when there werent numbers that made it a economically wise choice, and xbox was never close to being a market leader. Lots of companies have had exclusive games this early in the life of a system, so why is it that its hard to believe now.

    Besides, sony has probably made some sort of agreement with konami that there wont be a port of any sort for at least 2 years. Keep in mind, kojima may be done with the series, but that doesnt mean he is all of a sudden gone from konami, he will still be there, and he will still have weight with the corporation.

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