The Fall of Sony?
About.com has written up a piece of speculative fiction they call “Nintendo’s Role in Sony’s Fall”. They go through a step-by-step process talking about the fall of Sony. There are a total of 13 steps. Not all of these are speculation. As a matter of fact, steps one through eight have already happened. (Well, except maybe for the Nintendo Connect thing.)
That leaves just a couple steps of speculation.
Step nine is Nintendo’s adoption of a non-compete strategy, whereby they try to do an end-run around the next-gen console battle by suggesting that the Revolution can live in harmony with either a PS3 or a 360. This leaves Sony and Microsoft to battle things out (step ten). While a little bit on the wild side (how does a company just step out of a battle without giving up?), I’ll leave that alone.
Step eleven is the launch of the PS3 and Revolution. Here’s where the conjecture really starts. They suggest that Microsoft will reduce the price of the 360 and release Halo 3 at the same time as the PS3’s launch. While not said outright, it is suggested that this curbs the PS3’s sales. At this point I have to think to myself that the author of this article doesn’t get it. What Sony fan will do a double-take when the PS3 is released and opt for an Xbox 360 instead? “You know, I had all my money saved up for a PS3, but then you know, Microsoft came along with Halo 3 and I decided to buy that instead.” If a gamer wanted an Xbox 360, he’d have bought it. If he decided to wait for a PS3, no tactics on Microsoft’s part wouild dissuade him. He could go out and buy that Xbox 360 at any time. The fact is, he’s waiting for the PS3, and he’ll buy the PS3. Just the fact that he had to wait for it will make him go through with it.
Step twelve basically says that the PSP will do well, but will be in second place to the DS.
Step thirteen basically goes from everything we see today, plus step eleven, to basically “Sony lost”. That’s quite a leap in logic, don’t you think? It’s like that Seinfeld episode where someone sticks “and yadda yadda yadda” into a sentence, and that’s supposed to explain everything. Well what was the “yadda yadda yadda” ??? What actually led to Sony’s downfall? Surely he couldn’t mean the Halo 3 thing, could he? That’s not enough to go on! He mentions that the PS3 is hard to develop for. That didn’t stop the PS2! We need just a little bit more, man!
So this whole “13 steps to Sony’s downfall” is basically just two steps. It exists, then it falls. Sorry! You didn’t catch this fish.
What do you think? Reply here or in the PS3 forum.