200 million PS3’s
According to EFYTimes, BusinessWeek said that they expect the PS3 to sell 200 million copies in its first five years, with 12 million of those in the first year. That would leave an average of, oh, about 47 million in each of the four subsequent years.
This sounds just a bit, uh, crazy to me.
Maybe the estimate for the first year is okay – isn’t Microsoft shooting for 6 million in the first six months? (Correct me if I’m wrong.) So having the PS3 do the equivalent in the first year isn’t a big stretch. But an average of 47 million in each of the subsequent year sounds a little nuts. Say the console keeps selling better and better. That could mean a distribution like this:
Year 1 – 12 million
Year 2 – 20 million
Year 3 – 40 million
Year 4 – 57 million
Year 5 – 71 million
I’m just distributing the numbers somewhat haphazardly. But still, do they look like anything even close to what the reality may be? I doubt it.