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Worst Prediction Ever: MGS4 on the 360

Famous game journalist and Wired writer, Chris Kohler made the following statement right before E3 on 7/2/2007:

Also, Konami probably prefers making money to losing truckloads of it. All things considered, I’m pretty sure it’s already a done deal, given the fact that we hear very credible rumors about it once a week or so.

Rumors every week? Yes. Credible rumors? For all those credible rumors he’s been hearing, he sure didn’t post a single link or reference.

Also, multi-platform games don’t necessarily earn more money. Sure, they reach a large user base which has obvious revenue advantages, however there are huge buzz and marketing advantages to being platform exclusive and a substantial audience is much more receptive to buying a platform exclusive title than a similar multi-platform one.

A highly circulated anonymous insider tip surfaced at Nooz:

Earlier this week, the information of Metal gear’s non platform exclusivity was imparted to me by way of a dev source close to the team who cannot be named by pain of death. It’s coming a few months later than the PS3 game, but it’s happening folks.

This is said to be because publishers – including Konami – don’t believe there’ll be enough PS3s out there by the time the game hits because of the blu ray diode failure issues.

We honestly can’t rule out the possibility of a timed exclusive yet. However, I’ll bet that this “anonymous insider tip” was really just nonsense to begin with.

Other notable journalists and bloggers who called this one wrong:

  • Our own Henning predicted a 5% chance of MGS4 remaining PS3 exclusive at E3. (Sorry Henning)
  • 1UP Yours Podcasters were pretty sure that MGS4 was a sure thing on the 360. Shane was the only one to disagree (however, he felt the exact same way about DMC4)
  • Arstechnica’s Ben Kuchera predicted MGS4 would be announced for 360 at E3 (Frank disagreed)


As a PS3 fan, it really feels wonderful to see the nearly unanimous doom-sayers call this one so far off. 🙂


Wired’s Chris Kohler is sure of a 360 MGS4 before E3 2007

Nooz anonymous insider
Joystiq links to the Nooz insider: heightened rumor
Another site is completely convinced that the Nooz insider confirms it.