Worst Prediction Ever: MGS4 on the 360
Famous game journalist and Wired writer, Chris Kohler made the following statement right before E3 on 7/2/2007:
Also, Konami probably prefers making money to losing truckloads of it. All things considered, I’m pretty sure it’s already a done deal, given the fact that we hear very credible rumors about it once a week or so.
Rumors every week? Yes. Credible rumors? For all those credible rumors he’s been hearing, he sure didn’t post a single link or reference.
Also, multi-platform games don’t necessarily earn more money. Sure, they reach a large user base which has obvious revenue advantages, however there are huge buzz and marketing advantages to being platform exclusive and a substantial audience is much more receptive to buying a platform exclusive title than a similar multi-platform one.
A highly circulated anonymous insider tip surfaced at Nooz:
Earlier this week, the information of Metal gear’s non platform exclusivity was imparted to me by way of a dev source close to the team who cannot be named by pain of death. It’s coming a few months later than the PS3 game, but it’s happening folks.
This is said to be because publishers – including Konami – don’t believe there’ll be enough PS3s out there by the time the game hits because of the blu ray diode failure issues.
We honestly can’t rule out the possibility of a timed exclusive yet. However, I’ll bet that this “anonymous insider tip” was really just nonsense to begin with.
Other notable journalists and bloggers who called this one wrong:
- Our own Henning predicted a 5% chance of MGS4 remaining PS3 exclusive at E3. (Sorry Henning)
- 1UP Yours Podcasters were pretty sure that MGS4 was a sure thing on the 360. Shane was the only one to disagree (however, he felt the exact same way about DMC4)
- Arstechnica’s Ben Kuchera predicted MGS4 would be announced for 360 at E3 (Frank disagreed)
As a PS3 fan, it really feels wonderful to see the nearly unanimous doom-sayers call this one so far off. 🙂