It’s fair to say that the overall sales performance of VR gaming hardware has been disappointing of late. Far from being a juggernaut that heralds the future of gaming, there are suggestions that it is a trend in decline.

Overall sales of VR content were down 10% in 2023, something summed up by the sluggish performance of the PSVR2. Yes, there is a lot of buzz around Apple’s Vision Pro right now, which we will address a little bit later. But it’s enough to say that AR/VR still feels a little awkward in its position within gaming.

Some of that comes from the fact that we are looking at reinventing the wheel. For more than half a century, gaming was something you did with your hands and fingers while looking at a screen. It is very difficult to upend that. Yes, some people enjoy VR games, and the point of this piece is not to dismiss it at all. Rather, it’s to discuss the very fabric of the activity and then parse out why that creates a challenge for the nascent VR/AR industry.

The basics of gaming do not easily change

The mechanics are important, of course, and we can bring it down to the very basics of gaming. If you understand how to play slots online, for example, you can appreciate that the fundamentals are the same as physical slot machines. Slot games have evolved, yes, to become more complex (at times) and interesting, but there still needs to be the sensation that the player is controlling the reels by physically spinning them. That same idea can be extrapolated across all of gaming.

AR/VR is asking us to move away from the “look at screen and control with digits” formula. And that’s a big ask. Moreover, there is a sense of being detached from the game with the original formula, and AR/VR wants you to be more immersed in it. It wants the game to surround you. Now, some might think that more immersion in gaming worlds is a good thing, but it’s arguably a mistake to make that assumption. The clear mark of distinction between reality and gaming is part of what makes it popular.

To use a crude example, consider soccer games. Some of the best-selling games of the last few decades, notably the FIFA franchise (now EA FC), have been soccer games. They follow the “digits and screen” formula. But is there a future for AR/VR soccer games, such as VR soccer simulators? Do players actually want to move around and use their feet to play these games? Would there be a point where players would simply choose to play real soccer? The answer is, of course, that we don’t know, but it’s arguable that we don’t need VR soccer as we have the real thing already. On the other hand, we can point to the Wii model, particularly games like Wii Sports, which show an appetite for movement-based games. Yet, they remain fairly niche, family activities that don’t feel like ‘serious’ gaming.

Apple Vision Pro isn’t gaming-centric

A word, then, on the Apple Vision Pro. While the company touched on gaming in its initial presentation at WWDC 2023 last June, it has been auspiciously low-key in its promotion of the headset as a gaming-centric device. This is telling. The Vision Pro is the result of years of work in order to create Apple’s first new type of hardware since the Apple Watch in 2015. Apple does its omework, and it clearly did not see gaming as a primary use case. It should tell us something about the future of AR/VR gaming.

We should note, of course, that many reports about the Vision Pro suggest the device is too heavy for longer sessions, notably movies. While the PSVR and Meta Quest devices are noticeably more comfortable, it still infers the question of packing so much power into a computer that you ostensibly wear on your head. True, Apple and others will find ways to make wearing the devices more comfortable for longer gaming sessions, but it is still a problem that needs to be solved.

Indeed, experts have sounded the alarm about the potential health risks of VR/AR gaming. One of the most-cited issues is eye strain from excessive screen time. While we know that staring at any screen for long periods can be problematic for the eyes, VR/AR is argued to be more so due to the way it effectively provides a mini screen for each eye. Both the distance from the eye and the way that strains each individual eye can make for problems. And don’t forget that there have not been any major studies that show health outcomes for the long term.

Again, we stress that in all of this, the point is not to sound downbeat about the future of AR/VR gaming. In fact, it would be myopic to do so. The technology still feels raw; perhaps we are at the moment of Blackberry smartphones and will soon make the leap to the iPhone era. Moreover, some of the arguments we presented have compelling counterarguments, particularly when it comes to the mechanics of gaming being something you do with your hands. It would feel foolish to dismiss the prospect of exploring immersive worlds, such as what Meta is trying to achieve with Horizon Worlds.

But our prediction is this: VR/AR gaming will continue to be a genre/sub-section of gaming; it will not be the overarching gaming experience. The popularity of AR/VR gaming will probably rise in the coming years, and the experience in all aspects will improve, but it is unlikely to usurp traditional gaming.